Private property price changes in 4Q 2021

COMPARISON OF PROPERTY PRICE INDEX FOR 3RD QUARTER 2021 AND 4TH QUARTER 2021

(Source: URA Media Release)

According to the flash estimates from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), private home prices in Singapore has jumped a total of 10.6% in 2021, as compared to the 2.2% rise in 2020. This is also the highest annual growth since 2010, when private home prices rose 17.6%. 

Overall, we can see a gain of 5% in the private residential property index in the fourth quarter of 2021. From the data, we can also learn that there has been an increase in both landed and non-landed property prices.

Landed property prices have seen an increase of 3.7% as compared to the 2.6% in the previous quarter and non-landed property prices, on the other hand, have seen an increase of 5.4% as compared to the 0.7% increase in the previous quarter. 

Non-landed property in the Core Central Region rose by 2.5%, challenging the decline of 0.5% in the previous quarter, whereas non-landed property in the Rest of Central Region rose by 7.3% and prices of non-landed property in the Outside Central Region rose by 5.4%.

HDB resale flat price changes

Both the private residential property index as well as the HDB resale price index has risen for the seventh consecutive quarter in quarter 4 of 2021, and at a higher pace, too, than in the preceding 3 months. 

When it comes to HDB resale flat prices, Singapore has seen a rise of 12.5% in the whole year of 2021, the highest annual growth since 2010.

This is due to the fact that there has been more demand than supply in many areas. Construction delays and long completion periods of BTOs may have also turned buyers towards the resale market. 

To battle this, the government is looking to significantly increase the public housing supply. HDB plans to launch up to 23,000 flats per year in 2022 and 2023 while preparing to launch up to 100,000 flats in total from 2021 to 2025 if demand prevails.

We’ve all seen the news of the record breaking highs some HDB flats have sold at. Just take a look at the 5 room DBSS Natura Loft in Bishan, which sold for a whopping $1.36 million, the highest any flat has ever been sold for. This got us thinking, many of the million dollar flats that sold were DBSS. But why? What makes a DBSS so valuable in the resale market? How are they different from HDB flats? Today, we will be exploring the topic of DBSS flats. What they are, why they are priced differently, and just what makes them unique. Let’s begin.

What is a DBSS?

A DBSS or Design, Build and Sell Scheme, in a few short words, is a premium HDB flat. In terms of buying, it is pretty much the same as a HDB flat, whereby it is sold under the same conditions as a HDB flat and is eligible for the same grants that you would typically get if you applied for a regular HDB flat. 

The main difference between a HDB and a DBSS is its developer. A regular HDB flat is developed, or built, by HDB itself, for a DBSS on the other hand, it is developed and built by a private developer. The private developer oversees the design, pricing, and construction of the flat. 

On December 15, the Singapore government announced new measures to cool the private residential and HDB resale markets. At a glance these measures include:

• Tightening of the Loan-To-Value (LTV) limits for HDB housing loan
• Raise in the Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) rates for those buying second and subsequent properties
• Tightening of Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) threshold 

As private housing prices and HDB resale flat values have increased by about 9% and 15% respectively since the first quarter of 2020, the introduction of these new measures are meant to "promote continued housing affordability".

Tightening of the Loan-To-Value (LTV) limits for HDB housing loan

From December 16 onwards, the LTV limits for HDB housing loans will reduce from 90% to 85%. Before, home buyers were typically able to get a maximum loan of 90% of the property purchase price through HDB and then pay the remaining 10% as down payment through cash or CPF. With the new measure, home buyers will now need to fork out an extra 5% down payment through cash or CPF payment and thereby have a lesser loan quantum.

This however does not apply to bank loans, where the LTV limit will stay at 75%.

Raise in the Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty (ABSD) rates for those buying second and subsequent properties

Currently, the ABSD rates for Singapore citizens and Permanent Residents (PRs) purchasing their first residential property will not change. What has changed is the stamp duty rates when purchasing a second and subsequent property. Singapore citizens buying a second property will see a rise of 5% in ABSD rates from 12% to 17%, and a rise of 10% from 15% to 25% for a third and subsequent property. 

For the rise in rates, please refer to the table above. 

Tightening of Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) threshold 

TDSR limits the amount a person can spend on monthly debt repayments. Before it was set to 60%, which means mortgages cannot cause the borrower’s total monthly loan repayment to exceed 60% of their monthly income. This however will be reduced to make smaller home loans for borrowers. According to new measures, TDSR will be lowered from 60% to 55% as of 16 December. Borrowers of property loans granted beforehand will not be affected.

With the booming of the HDB resale market, we have seen resale flat prices hitting a record high in the third quarter of this year. A record number of HDB flats has also been seen crossing over the $1 million mark, 174 to be exact, and in just the first nine months of 2021. A huge jump as compared to the 82 $1 million flats sold in the whole of last year. With all these in mind, the government has decided to bring about a new measure that would ensure that public housing remains affordable, especially in prime locations where most of the million dollar big ticket sales have been occurring. This new measure comes in the form of the new Prime Location Public Housing (PLH) model.

So what is the Prime Location Public Housing (PLH) model and why was it introduced?

The PLH model was first introduced on October 26 by National Development Minister Desmond Lee. It was introduced with the main aim of keeping public housing in prime/central locations like the city centre and the Greater Southern Waterfront affordable, accessible and inclusive for all Singaporeans both at the initial purchase and at subsequent purchase on the open market.

Who will be affected by the PLH model?

The PLH model only applies to future HDBs, not existing ones, so current home owners need not worry about the PLH model. For example, The PLH model will apply to the new pilot project at Rochor, which is a new BTO November 2021 sales exercise located along Kelantan Road. It will not, however, apply to older projects like the Pinnacle @ Duxton, for instance. 

How many PLH model HDBs will there be?

According to Mr Desmond Lee, the exact number of projects launched each year under this model will depend on site availability and overall supply of flats across all towns. However, we do know that at least one prime location HDB project will be launched every year. 

List of successful enbloc in Singapore

We're updating a running list of projects which have successfully sold enbloc in Singapore since 2017. Do let us know if we missed out any!

Enbloc to support the continued increase in residential prices

The number of enbloc properties is a key factor to watch, as it is expected to support the continued increase in residential prices in the short-medium term. Lucky owners are receiving a big payout, and if that was their primary home, they will be forced to recycle this cash back into the property market. While some older folks may choose to downgrade to a HDB, this supports HDB prices and closes the price gap between HDB and condo, helping others to upgrade. In addition, an enbloc temporarily removes completed housing stock in Singapore for the period of the construction (up to 4 years), pushing up the rental market. 

How to spot condos that are likely to enbloc

Condos which are most likely to enbloc have a number of attributes. First, they are likely older developments (>20 years), where the design and appearance of the condo are outdated, and facilities have been damaged by wear and tear over the years, leading to a price discount compared to newer condos. Second, the development plot ratio has not been maximised. If a condo was built up to a plot ratio of 0.8x in the 1990s and the current URA master plan is now at 1.4x, the unutilised plot ratio can only be maximised by tearing down and rebuilding the condo in an enbloc. You can easily check the allowable plot ratio under the current URA master plan here: https://www.ura.gov.sg/maps/?service=MP. The existing development plot ratio is not that easy to find though, and you can check with the current MCST, or do a rough back of envelope calculation based on number of units and the average sizes of the 1,2,3,etc bedroom units. 

So you’ve decided to buy a condo. Now, you’re probably asking yourself, which is the better choice? Buying a brand new or a resale condo? - Which one of the two is a better investment? Which option makes the most monetary sense? These questions can be answered depending on the purpose of your purchase. 

First you have to ask yourself, why are you buying a condo? Are you looking for en bloc potential to turn a profit? Are you trying to find a nice home for yourself and your family? Or are you looking to find the right place that can make passive income through rental yield? Each of these questions lead to different answers. Once you’ve got your intention for purchase, you can start to explore your options. 

In this article we will be comparing new launch and resale condominiums. What makes each of them unique and what are the key selling points for each condominium. Let’s begin.